Prediction Time

So, I've been reading Electoral-vote.com obsessively for the last few weeks, and have come to the same conclusion everyone else has come to: who will win will depend on turnout, specifically turnout in these states:

Minnesota (10)
Iowa (7)
Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (17)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
Florida (27)

The guy who maintains Electoral-vote.com is predicting a Kerry win of 291 - 242, with Kerry winning all of the battleground states except Ohio. I've read all sorts of stuff lately about how the traditional polling techniques don't work any more, lots of new voters are going to vote Kerry in, if the Washington Redskins lose, the incumbent loses, etc.

I'll believe it when I see it. The reason the pollsters try to account for "likely voters" is because it doesn't matter how many people register to vote, it only matters how many people actually go to the polls. Everyone I know thinks this a very important election (for a wide range of reasons), but the people I know are not particularly representative of the US population in general.

So, here's what I think. I figure my opinion is just as valid as any TV talking head, and it's certainly more valid than Ann Coulter's, who is a psychotic just-this-side-of-Attila-the-Hun partisan. Disagree with Ann and you're branded a traitor. Anyway, I digress...

Kerry wins:

Minnesota (10)
Iowa (7)
Pennsylvania (21)

Bush wins:

Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (17)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)

This will give Bush a win by a 306 - 227 margin. And we spend the next 8 weeks watching recounts and court battles. Again. And we get to listen Bush - Cheney talk about a "mandate" for their nutso agenda. Again.

But I could be wrong, I figured Al Gore was toast, and he actually got more votes than Dubya.